Cardiff · Q2 2026

Cardiff prints 3,520 sales at £265k median as central pipeline stays HMO-led

The Welsh capital is clearing volume on a flat-led owner-occupier base while the live council register reads as conversions, HMOs and the City Square reshuffle.

Median sale price: £265,000
Median price trend: £265k
Pending dev applications: 137
Pipeline value (GDV): £61.3m

Cardiff turned over 3,520 residential transactions in the past twelve months at a £265,000 median, up 0.8% year on year, against just 76 new-build registrations across the council area. The live Cardiff Council pipeline is small and conversion-heavy: 9 pending applications, 12 units and £2.47m of estimated GDV, with nothing yet determined in this snapshot.

What's driving the Cardiff market

Cardiff trades roughly £155,000 above the Wales-wide median but sits well below the South West and London centres we cover, which is the structural reason the city keeps absorbing stock without big price swings. The 0.8% year-on-year change reads as a market grinding sideways on Welsh capital fundamentals: Cardiff Bay and the Butetown waterfront still working through long-cycle regeneration, Central Square delivering its final commercial parcels around the BBC and HMRC buildings, and the post-Debenhams reshuffle at City Square in CF10 now an active planning case rather than a hypothetical. The Cardiff Local Development Plan to 2026 (under Welsh Government planning framework) is approaching its end-of-cycle, with a replacement LDP in preparation, and that policy window matters for anyone holding land. Transaction depth is the supporting fact: 3,520 completions against 76 new-build registrations means resale stock is doing almost all the clearing work, with flats medianing at £162,000 and detached at £456,000. That four-bin spread is wider in absolute terms than most regional cities, and it sets the appraisal ceiling for any central conversion targeting a sub-£300,000 exit.

Market data at a glance

The Cardiff numbers, visualised

Median sale price by property type

3,566 sales clearing across the type-mix

£161k

£161,125

£265k

£265,000

£300k

£300,000

£460k

£460,000

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid, rolling 12 months.

New build mix

+78.9% premium

3,540

New build · 0.7%Existing stock

Planning decisions data

Approval-rate breakdown for Cardiff is still indexing. National 12-month average sits at ~83% for major residential schemes.

Cardiff quarterly median price & volume

Median sale priceTransactions

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data. Median computed across all registered transactions per period.

How Cardiff compares

Market

Median

YoY

12m txns

Cardiff

£265,000

3,566

Wales average

£220,000

+1%

—

UK average

£285,000

+1.4%

—

Development pipeline

Live planning activity in Cardiff

Cardiff Council's public-access register returned 9 relevant pending applications in this Q2 2026 run, totalling 12 units and £2.47m of estimated GDV. Approval rate sits at 0% because nothing has been determined yet, which is consistent with a register dominated by recently registered cases. The skew is the story. Three of the nine are HMO conversions or extensions in the Cathays student belt (26/00959/FUL and 26/00836/FUL at 55 and 57 Rhymney Street, plus 26/00804/FUL at 44 Salisbury Road, taking a 6-bed C4 HMO to a 7-bed Sui Generis). Two are house-to-flat conversions delivering small unit counts at material GDV: 26/00792/FUL at 161 North Road, Mynachdy, splitting the property into four flats at an estimated £652,000 GDV, and 26/00776/FUL at 13 Pentrebane Street, Grangetown, taking the building to three flats at £489,000. One office-to-residential case sits at 59 Mount Stuart Square in Butetown (26/00775/FUL), a single B1a-to-C3 conversion. The largest single case by GDV is 26/00782/FUL at City Square, the former Debenhams site on St Davids Way (CF10 2UF), a demolition and reinstatement scheme delivering 2 units with associated facade and engineering works at £530,000 estimated GDV. For development-finance demand, the read is that Cardiff in Q2 2026 is a small-ticket conversion and HMO market on the live register, with no large outline residential case in the central data set.

Top schemes by GDV in the pipeline

Notable pending applications

Pending26/01367/VAR

184

units

Application for the Approval of Reserved Matters (appearance, scale, layout, landscaping and access) for residential development of 184 dwellings, forming parcel 2C of Phase 1 (Land South of Llantrisant Road), pursuant to outline planning permission 14/02733/MJR. (Approved 13th February 2026 - 25/01102/RES) Variation of Condition 8 of 25/01102/RES to amend the approved plans as follows: 1) any windows installed on the first floor side elevations of plots 47,129 and 153 shall be obscurely glazed and non-opening below 1.7m internal floor level.

Pending26/01238/FUL

units

Reconfiguration and conversion of existing building comprising 8 flats to 12 flats with new build construction of 3 flats to the rear, total 15 dwellings, with ancillary amenity space, waste provision area and covered bicycle storage

Pending26/01409/VAR

units

Demolish existing single storey rear extension and erect three storey rear extension to provide class A1, A2, A3 and D2 commercial floorspace and 8 residential apartments (approved 27/09/2024 under permission 23/02083/FUL and subsequently varied by 26/01071/NMA approved 18/06/2026) Variation of condition 2 (approved plans) of 23/02083/FUL to amend the approved layout.

Pending26/01613/FUL

units

Proposed construction of 2 detached dwellings

Pending26/01304/FUL

units

Ground and first floor extensions to create 4 additional flats (10 in total).

Pending26/01117/REN

units

Renewal of Planning Permission 20/02424/MNR for a new development with part ground floor commercial and residential and upper floors 4 flats and relocate sub station.

Source: Cardiff Council portal. GDV estimates use local sales medians by property type.

Sales activity

Recent Cardiff sold prices

The recent Land Registry tape sets a clear price ladder for appraisers. The top central print is 22 Dan Donovan Way (CF11 0JZ) at £720,000 on 19 March 2026, a freehold terrace in the Pontcanna fringe that flags where high-spec family product clears in CF11. Below that, 38 Ty Wern Road in CF14 6AB traded at £380,000 as a semi, and 35 Powderham Drive (CF11 8ND) cleared £345,000 as a detached. Mid-market terraces in CF24 are pricing between £232,000 and £302,500 (8 Cyfarthfa Street at £247,000, 52 Coveny Street at £302,500). At the floor, central leasehold flats compress hard: Flat 200 Altolusso on Bute Terrace (CF10 2FH) sold at £110,000 and 89 Awel Mor (CF23 9QB) at £118,000. By type, detached medians sit at £456,000, semis at £300,000, terraces at £265,000 and flats at £162,000. The £294,000 spread between detached and flat medians is what makes conversion-route maths sensitive in central CF10, CF11 and CF24.

Latest registered sales

Land Registry · 11 August 2026

Date	Address	Type	Tenure	Price
29 June 2026	14, COTTRELL ROAD	T	F	£260,000
26 June 2026	12, EDDYSTONE CLOSE	T	L	£153,000
26 June 2026	53, LANSDOWNE ROAD	T	F	£260,000
26 June 2026	16, HEATHBROOK	S	F	£295,000
24 June 2026	32, COLCHESTER AVENUE	T	F	£500,000
23 June 2026	85, SEVERN ROAD	T	F	£325,000
23 June 2026	2, LLANDEGFEDD CLOSE	T	F	£210,000
23 June 2026	152, INVERNESS PLACE	T	F	£295,000

A central register dominated by HMOs and small conversions reflects Cardiff's planning cycle, not its capacity to absorb stock.

For developers

What this means for Cardiff schemes

Cardiff entry prices are lower than Bristol but higher than most northern comparators, and the Welsh tax and regulatory layer changes the structuring. Land Transaction Tax (LTT) replaces SDLT on Welsh acquisitions, with higher non-residential bands above £225,000 and a 4% second-property surcharge in the residential bands, so acquisition stamp costs run differently from a Bristol or Birmingham appraisal. The Building Safety Act 2022 applies in Wales for higher-risk buildings (18m or seven storeys) through Welsh Government secondary legislation, with planning gateway implications for any taller central scheme. Welsh language considerations apply to marketing materials and signage under Cardiff Council's policy framework, and developers targeting Welsh-medium catchments often run bilingual collateral. For the small-ticket HMO and conversion product dominating the live register, senior development debt at 65-70% LTGDV typical sits with the same lenders we use in England, with rates running 9-12% on senior-only structures. On a £162,000 flat exit, build-cost discipline is the entire margin. Bridging from 0.65% per month covers site acquisition where planning is unresolved, and we have placed several CF-postcode pre-planning bridges into refinance over the past year. Exit risk is low in absolute terms: 3,520 transactions a year is a deep liquidity pool for the unit sizes in play.

Cardiff development finance

Term sheets for ground-up schemes — 65-70% LTGDV typical for Cardiff.

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Cardiff bridging finance

Auction, refurb and pre-planning bridge for Cardiff sites.

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Cardiff market hub

Full Cardiff location profile — services, sold data, and contacts.

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Where we fund in Cardiff

Outlook

The next 12 months in Cardiff

Our twelve-month view is for Cardiff to keep printing slow positive growth in the 0.5% to 1.5% range, with central flat exits still the binding constraint on conversion-route margin. Two factors to watch: the City Square (former Debenhams) case at 26/00782/FUL will set a tone for how Cardiff Council handles large central demolition and reinstatement applications under the closing LDP, and the replacement LDP timetable will frame medium-term land values across Butetown, Cardiff Bay and the central arc. Cathays HMO volume is likely to keep running given the student catchment. We would lean toward small-ticket conversion and PD-route plays in CF10, CF11 and CF24, with cautious appraisals on speculative greenfield outside the existing settlement boundaries.

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Sources: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data (sold prices); Cardiff Council planning portal (planning applications); ONS House Price Index (regional benchmarks). Report generated 20 May 2026 by Construction Capital's market intelligence team.

Methodology: Pending GDV is estimated by multiplying declared unit counts by local sales medians for the corresponding property type. Approval rate is the share of decided applications (last 12 months) granted permission. Sold-price changes are year-on-year comparisons of the median sale price. Pipeline activity refers to residential development applications only — household extensions, conditions variations, and other non-development applications are excluded. Construction Capital is a trading name of Lenzie Consulting Ltd. (08174104).