Cardiff prints 3,520 sales at £265k median as central pipeline stays HMO-led

Cardiff Council's public-access register returned 9 relevant pending applications in this Q2 2026 run, totalling 12 units and £2.47m of estimated GDV. Approval rate sits at 0% because nothing has been determined yet, which is consistent with a register dominated by recently registered cases. The skew is the story. Three of the nine are HMO conversions or extensions in the Cathays student belt (26/00959/FUL and 26/00836/FUL at 55 and 57 Rhymney Street, plus 26/00804/FUL at 44 Salisbury Road, taking a 6-bed C4 HMO to a 7-bed Sui Generis). Two are house-to-flat conversions delivering small unit counts at material GDV: 26/00792/FUL at 161 North Road, Mynachdy, splitting the property into four flats at an estimated £652,000 GDV, and 26/00776/FUL at 13 Pentrebane Street, Grangetown, taking the building to three flats at £489,000. One office-to-residential case sits at 59 Mount Stuart Square in Butetown (26/00775/FUL), a single B1a-to-C3 conversion. The largest single case by GDV is 26/00782/FUL at City Square, the former Debenhams site on St Davids Way (CF10 2UF), a demolition and reinstatement scheme delivering 2 units with associated facade and engineering works at £530,000 estimated GDV. For development-finance demand, the read is that Cardiff in Q2 2026 is a small-ticket conversion and HMO market on the live register, with no large outline residential case in the central data set.

The recent Land Registry tape sets a clear price ladder for appraisers. The top central print is 22 Dan Donovan Way (CF11 0JZ) at £720,000 on 19 March 2026, a freehold terrace in the Pontcanna fringe that flags where high-spec family product clears in CF11. Below that, 38 Ty Wern Road in CF14 6AB traded at £380,000 as a semi, and 35 Powderham Drive (CF11 8ND) cleared £345,000 as a detached. Mid-market terraces in CF24 are pricing between £232,000 and £302,500 (8 Cyfarthfa Street at £247,000, 52 Coveny Street at £302,500). At the floor, central leasehold flats compress hard: Flat 200 Altolusso on Bute Terrace (CF10 2FH) sold at £110,000 and 89 Awel Mor (CF23 9QB) at £118,000. By type, detached medians sit at £456,000, semis at £300,000, terraces at £265,000 and flats at £162,000. The £294,000 spread between detached and flat medians is what makes conversion-route maths sensitive in central CF10, CF11 and CF24.

Cardiff entry prices are lower than Bristol but higher than most northern comparators, and the Welsh tax and regulatory layer changes the structuring. Land Transaction Tax (LTT) replaces SDLT on Welsh acquisitions, with higher non-residential bands above £225,000 and a 4% second-property surcharge in the residential bands, so acquisition stamp costs run differently from a Bristol or Birmingham appraisal. The Building Safety Act 2022 applies in Wales for higher-risk buildings (18m or seven storeys) through Welsh Government secondary legislation, with planning gateway implications for any taller central scheme. Welsh language considerations apply to marketing materials and signage under Cardiff Council's policy framework, and developers targeting Welsh-medium catchments often run bilingual collateral. For the small-ticket HMO and conversion product dominating the live register, senior development debt at 65-70% LTGDV typical sits with the same lenders we use in England, with rates running 9-12% on senior-only structures. On a £162,000 flat exit, build-cost discipline is the entire margin. Bridging from 0.65% per month covers site acquisition where planning is unresolved, and we have placed several CF-postcode pre-planning bridges into refinance over the past year. Exit risk is low in absolute terms: 3,520 transactions a year is a deep liquidity pool for the unit sizes in play.

Our twelve-month view is for Cardiff to keep printing slow positive growth in the 0.5% to 1.5% range, with central flat exits still the binding constraint on conversion-route margin. Two factors to watch: the City Square (former Debenhams) case at 26/00782/FUL will set a tone for how Cardiff Council handles large central demolition and reinstatement applications under the closing LDP, and the replacement LDP timetable will frame medium-term land values across Butetown, Cardiff Bay and the central arc. Cathays HMO volume is likely to keep running given the student catchment. We would lean toward small-ticket conversion and PD-route plays in CF10, CF11 and CF24, with cautious appraisals on speculative greenfield outside the existing settlement boundaries.