Winchester Q3 2026: 55 homes approved as a 153-home scheme awaits a decision

The pending pipeline across the authority stands at 66 applications proposing 440 homes, with an estimated GDV of £192.7m, estimated from local sold-price medians by property type. The largest by value is 26/01699/FUL, a full application from Cala Homes (Southern) Ltd for 153 dwellings including affordable housing, public open space and new pedestrian and cycle routes at SO23 7ER, with an estimated GDV of £70.4m. Next is 26/00197/OUT from Barwood Development Securities Ltd and Cranbury Estates Ltd, an outline scheme for up to 76 dwellings, including affordable housing and self-build plots, alongside a 70-bed residential care home at SO21 2EU. Smaller schemes show the range of routes in play. 26/01798/PNRCOU seeks prior approval under Part MA to convert Class E space into 29 apartments at SO23 8RZ, estimated at £6.7m GDV. 26/01172/FUL proposes demolishing Kings Worthy Court and building 14 homes in phases at SO23 7QJ, estimated at £6.4m. SDNP/25/03644/FUL would replace existing greenhouses with 13 dwellings at SO32 3RF. The largest refusal of the quarter was 23/01457/OUT, an outline scheme for up to 69 dwellings at PO7 3AX from West Waterlooville Developments (Grainger PLC) LTD, refused on 30 July 2026.

HM Land Registry Price Paid Data shows a median sold price of £460,000 across 2,027 transactions in the 12 months to 30 June 2026, up 2.2% year on year. By property type, detached homes had a median of £650,000, semi-detached £415,000, terraced £370,500 and flats £230,000. New-build sales registered so far in the window total 97. Quarterly medians have moved within a band: £450,000 in 2025-Q3, £473,500 in 2025-Q4, £475,000 in 2026-Q1 and £420,000 in 2026-Q2. The 2026-Q2 count of 324 transactions should not be read as a fall in activity. Land Registry registers sales weeks or months after completion, so the most recent quarter is still filling, and its median may also move as more sales are added. Individual records registered since the window closed give some local texture. A detached home in SO23 7ER, the same postcode as the 153-home Cala Homes (Southern) Ltd application, sold for £997,000 on 14 August 2026, and a terraced home in SO23 0HF sold for £465,000 on the same day. Single sales are indicators only, not a market trend.

The figures point to a market where consents are being granted but large schemes remain contested. The 12-month approval rate of 80% is encouraging for well-prepared applications, while the refusal of an outline scheme for up to 69 dwellings at PO7 3AX shows that scale still attracts scrutiny. Smaller conversion routes are active on both sides of the ledger: one Class MA approval for 3 units this quarter and a pending Part MA application for 29 apartments. For appraisals, the type medians matter more than the headline. A detached median of £650,000 against a flat median of £230,000 means scheme mix will drive GDV, and lenders will test assumptions against registered evidence. Construction Capital arranges senior development finance from 6.5% p.a., up to 65-70% LTGDV, with mezzanine stretching total borrowing to 85-90% of costs. Bridging completing in 5-10 days can help secure sites or bridge to planning. We place deals across a panel of 100+ lenders, family offices and equity partners, which helps match schemes of different sizes and risk profiles to suitable capital.

The next quarter will turn on a handful of large decisions. The 153-home Cala Homes (Southern) Ltd application at SO23 7ER and the outline scheme for up to 76 dwellings and a 70-bed care home at SO21 2EU together account for a large part of the 440 homes awaiting determination. Their outcomes will shape how much of the £192.7m estimated pipeline GDV becomes consented value. On sold prices, the picture is steady rather than strong. A median of £460,000 and growth of 2.2% in the 12 months to 30 June 2026 support values in appraisals, though the 2026-Q2 median of £420,000 is based on a quarter still being registered and should be watched as more sales arrive. With 97 new-build sales registered so far in the window, new-build evidence exists but remains thin, so comparables will need care. Developers with sites in the pipeline should prepare funding now, so that terms are in place when consent lands rather than after.